It is too early to answer this question according to the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council. The two quarter drop in real GDP (2025 Q4 & 2026 Q1) was of "very low amplitude", and it is subject to revision. Also, less than half of the industrial sectors registered a decline of activity. Add to that the evolution of the job market, then the diagnostic of a recession is premature.
Report of June 5 by the Business Cycle Council
The world economy expanded again in February according to the J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI data published March 5.
In short :
" Global Composite PMI Output Index at 53.3 (21-month high)
New export orders rise for first time in almost a year
Business optimism at five-month high"
Let's see what March will look like with the consequences of the war in the Middle East.
Link to the S&P Global press release of March 5 for more details
