Quebec economic expansion will continue in the coming months

The Desjardins Leading Index increased (0.9%) again recently. That lets believe that economic growth in Quebec will continue in the coming months.

OECD: Growth outlook improving for the world economy, but...

...it will still be below the historical trend prior to the financial crisis. This is what we can learn, and more, in the most recent Economic Outlook   published November 28 by the Paris based organization.

"The OECD projects that the global economy will grow by 3.6 percent this year, 3.7 percent in 2018 and 3.6 percent in 2019. The projections reflect slight improvements in the global economy since the previous Interim Economic Outlook in September 2017, but also concerns about long-term momentum."

Trump does not seem to be a nuisance to US economic growth these days

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index shows that US economic expansion in last September and October was slightly stronger than its historical trend.

The IHS Markit Flash US Composite PMI indicates the economic activity is not as vigorous in November as in the previous month but it is still solid.

The outlook for the coming months is still positive according to the monthly evolution of the Conference Board US Leading Economic Index. Nine of its ten indicators increased in October.

Growth is not as strong as the Trunp team expected but, at least, it is not turning down.

Short Term Outlook for Canada and Quebec

Leading indicators from the OECD for the canadian economy let believe that its pace of growth will continue in the coming months.

The Desjardins Leading Index sends a similar signal for the Quebec economy.

The world economy keeps expanding at a solid pace...

...according to PMI survey results published  November 6 by Markit Economics. Both manufacturing and services industries contributed to the expansion.

Quebec economy: the expansion will continue

The Desjardins Leading Index is still growing which means that the expansion of the Quebec economy will continue in the coming months.

The world economy will maintain its pace of expansion in the coming months

The most recent composite leading indicators, published October 9 by the OECD, signal that the world economy will keep its pace of expansion in the coming months.

The world economy keeps expanding at a solid pace

According to PMI data published October 4 by Markit Economics, the world economy is still expanding at a vigorous pace.

Overview of the world economy in 2017

The most recent monthly PMI surveys from IHS Markit indicate that the world economy is growing at a moderate pace for the time being.

The OECD monthly leading indicators, published June 12, let believe that the pace of growth will continue that way in the coming months.

http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/composite-leading-indicators-cli-oecd-june-2017.htm

In its most recent appraisal of the world economy, OECD economists predict that real world GDP will grow by 3.5% this year, which would be better than in 2016 (3.0%) and 2015 (3.1%).

http://www.oecd.org/economy/better-but-not-good-enough-new-approaches-are-needed-to-make-globalisation-work-for-all.htm

The next update on the world economic outlook will come from the IMF in July.

Quebec economy : sustained growth in the coming months, according to the DLI

The Desjardins Leading Index (DLI) lets believe that the Quebec economy will keep expanding at a moderate pace in the coming months. The most recent monthly analysis of the DLI was published May 15. In their May 18 Economic and Financial Outlook, Desjardins economists predict that Quebec real GDP will increase by 2% in 2017.

Moderate growth of the world economy in 2017

PMI surveys from IHS Markit indicate that the world economy expanded at a moderate pace in the first four months of this year.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8f2bc4e8a08648c98b02173d4e39e361

Composite leading indicators from the OECD let believe that this trend will continue in the coming quarters.

http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/OECD-CLI-05-17.pdf

So, the IMF forecast of a 3.5% growth for world output in 2017 is still in the cards. Such a growth would be better than in 2016 (3.1%), and would be similar to what was achieved from 2012 to 2015.

http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/04/04/world-economic-outlook-april-2017

United States economy: what will be its pace of growth in 2017?

Many organizations revised recently their growth forecast for the United States economy in 2017. All of them predict a net improvement compared to 2016 (1.6%).

The IMF (April 18) projects a real GDP growth of 2.3% this year. Last March, the OECD had an estimate of 2.4%. The Conference Board is less optimistic with 2.1%. The 42 professional forecasters consulted by the Federal Reserve of  Philadelphia arrive at a probability of 2.3%. Forecasters consulted monthly by The Economist ( April 8 edition) have projections in a range that goes from 2.0% to 2.6%, the average being 2.3%.

The Federal Reserve Board members and the Federal Reserve Bank presidents arrive at a median rate of  2.1%; their projections are in a range going from 1.7% to 2.3% ( their projections are from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth of 2017).

The Conference Board index of leading indicators for the US economy points to at least a moderate growth in the coming months, as well as the equivalent OECD index.

For the time being, PMI surveys from IHS Markit let believe that the first quarter economic growth is below what is necessary to reach an annual growth of 2%. Based on economic data available, the Conference Board and the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast reach the same conclusion.

Then to get an annual GDP expansion of 2.3% or 2.4%, the three other quarters would have to show vigorous growth.   Just remember that since 2010, US GDP growth went from a low of 1.6% (in 2011 and 2016) and a high of 2.6% (2015).

Hence, it will take  "tout un tour de force" to reach the Trump Administration expected growth (over 3% and even 4%) this year and the followings.

Quebec's economy pace of growth...

...should be quite solid in the coming months. This is what we can deduct from the evolution of Desjardins Leading Index. The DLI has increased for nine  consecutive months according to the information made available March 13 on Desjardins web site.

The world economy continued to expand in February...

...but at a slightly slower pace than in January, according to PMI data published March 3 by IHS Markit.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6a45959d0434499fac8322b4b12099b3

OECD leading economic indicators...

"...continue to point to growth gaining momentum in several advanced economies.", according to the press release published February 8 on that organization web site.

http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/OECD-CLI-02-17.pdf

Quebec economy: the Desjardins Leading Index...

...continues its progression, and that lets believe that the economic activity expansion will keep on going at a moderate growth in the coming months. The most recent data on this index were published February 9 on Desjardins' web site.

https://www.desjardins.com/ressources/pdf/ipd0217e.pdf

Economists from that financial institution projected, last January, that Quebec real GDP would grow by 1.7% in 2017.

The world economy pace of expansion...

...seems to accelerate these days according to PMI surveys by IHS Markit. The most recent data are based on surveys conducted last January, and for which the results were published February 3.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6ad1129d978643939914b4311ded2e37

The IMF updates its World Economic Outlook

The IMF published, January 16, the update of its World Economic Outlook. Its projections did not change for the world GDP compared to last fall estimates. But, there are slight revisions for many countries. The IMF signals this in its introduction: "...there is a wide dispersion of possible outcomes around the projections, given uncertainty surrounding the policy stance of the incoming U.S. administration and its global ramifications."

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/update/01/

World economy: OECD leading economic indicators...

... point to a more rapid pace of growth in the coming months in most of its member countries and in some emerging economies. The IMF update of its World Economic outlook, due for publication in the coming days, will give us an idea of what to expect for 2017 and of the risks to global growth.


http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/OECD-CLI-01-17.pdf

Quebec economy: the DLI keeps sending positive signals

The Desjardins Leading Index (DLI) recent evolution lets believe, again, that Quebec'economy will keep its expansion trend in the coming months. The latest data on the DLI were published January 12 on the Desjardins web site.

World economy: a more vigorous expansion, according to PMI data

The world economy expansion was doing better at the end of 2016 than at the first semester, according to data published by IHS Markit January 5. The new orders subindex lets believe that this trend will continue in early 2017.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/2000e7986b9c40aca171c3d56afe1362