Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Euro zone : the outlook continues to improve

The index of leading indicators of the evolution of euro zone economy increased again in December according to the data and the analysis published January 28 by the Conference Board.

Details at : http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=10

February 5 update : The PMI from Markit Economics show that the eurozone economy kept improving in January. 

Details at : http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8234c73e83714049a57e79337b91f438

Thursday, January 23, 2014

American Economy : Sustained Growth

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, based on 85 monthly indicators, shows that the US economy grew at a pace slightly higher than the trend during the last quarter of 2013.

http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/cfnai/2014/cfnai_january2014.pdf

The monthly and semi-annual evolution of the Conference Board leading economic index points towards a sustained growth in the coming months.

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

Many forecasters (IMF, World Bank, Conference Board, etc.) anticipate that the US GDP will grow by around 3% this year, compared to close to 2% in 2013.


Big Mac Index : the canadian dollar overvalued in January 2014

According to the Big Mac Index published by The Economist, the canadian dollar is overvalued, compared to the US dollar, by 8.4 % in January 2014.

Details at : http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

IMF- World Economic Outlook Update









Here is a good summary of the IMF World Economic Outlook Update published January 21 :









Monday, January 13, 2014

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Canadian economy : modest growth in the coming months

The leading indicators of the canadian economy show that its growth will be modest in the months to come. This is what we can interpret from the publication on January 6 of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute press release on the recent evolution of its index of leading indicators.

Details at : http://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/biggest-us-advance-in-years-drives-mli-leading-economic-indicator-up-0-3-in-november/

The manufacturing sector should contribute moderatly to the growth of the whole economy based on the recent evolution of the RBC PMI published January 2 on the Internet site of Markit Economics.

Details at : http://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Page.mvc/PressReleases

The Bank of Canada Report on Monetary Policy, to be published January 22, will give us a more complete overview on the state of the canadian economy and the Bank's projections for the coming quarters. Watch for questions on the absence of inflationary pressures and the possibility of deflation.

Monday, January 6, 2014

World economy : moderate rate of expansion

The world economy keeps expanding at a moderate rate. This is what the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI suggests. The evolution of the new orders subindex shows that this trend will continue in the coming months. The most recent monthly data and analysis were published January 6 on the Internet site of Markit Economics.

Details at : http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/ebfdf95d51b2401aae0936330ea3bd7e

Thursday, January 2, 2014

World manufacturing sector keeps expanding

According to Markit's PMI, the world manufacturing activity was expanding at a healthy rate in December. The evolution of the new order subindex shows that growth will continue in that sector in the near future.
 
Details at :
http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2014/jan/Global_PMI_manu_14_01_02.pdf