Many organizations revised recently their growth forecast for the United States economy in 2017. All of them predict a net improvement compared to 2016 (1.6%).
The IMF (April 18) projects a real GDP growth of 2.3% this year. Last March, the OECD had an estimate of 2.4%. The Conference Board is less optimistic with 2.1%. The 42 professional forecasters consulted by the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia arrive at a probability of 2.3%. Forecasters consulted monthly by The Economist ( April 8 edition) have projections in a range that goes from 2.0% to 2.6%, the average being 2.3%.
The Federal Reserve Board members and the Federal Reserve Bank presidents arrive at a median rate of 2.1%; their projections are in a range going from 1.7% to 2.3% ( their projections are from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth of 2017).
The Conference Board index of leading indicators for the US economy points to at least a moderate growth in the coming months, as well as the equivalent OECD index.
For the time being, PMI surveys from IHS Markit let believe that the first quarter economic growth is below what is necessary to reach an annual growth of 2%. Based on economic data available, the Conference Board and the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast reach the same conclusion.
Then to get an annual GDP expansion of 2.3% or 2.4%, the three other quarters would have to show vigorous growth. Just remember that since 2010, US GDP growth went from a low of 1.6% (in 2011 and 2016) and a high of 2.6% (2015).
Hence, it will take "tout un tour de force" to reach the Trump Administration expected growth (over 3% and even 4%) this year and the followings.
