The expansion of the world economy continues at a moderate pace

The J.P.Morgan Global Composite PMI, published December 6 by IHS Markit, indicates that the world economy keeps expanding at a moderate pace for the time being.

In its most recent Economic Outlook, the OECD forecasts that world real GDP will grow by 3.5% in 2019, slightly less than this year (3.7%).

United States: robust and stable growth in the coming months

Leading economic indicators from the Conference Board and the OECD point to stable and robust growth in the United States economic activity in the coming months.

Conference Board

OECD

Moreover, the most recent OECD Economic Outlook, published November 21, forecast that real GDP growth will be 2.7% in the US in 2019, compared to 2.9% this year.

Quebec economy: outlook for 2019

In their most recent Economic and Financial Outlook, published November 20, Desjardins' economists forecast that Quebec economy will grow by 2.0% in 2019. That will be less than this year,  their estimation for real GDP growth being at 2.6%. The evolution of the Desjardins Leading Index (DLI) confirms that the pace of growth will be less intense in the coming months.

   

A History of the United States Trade Policy

My comment on Douglas Irwin book «Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy» is available at :

https://jailuetvous.blogspot.com/2018/10/clashing-over-commerce-history-of-us.html

World economy: signs of slower growth in the coming months

The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI shows, that last July, the world output pace of growth was at a low in four months. The new orders subindex lets believe that this trend will continue in the short term.

As to leading indicators from the OECD, published August 8, they  "...are pointing tentatively to easing growth momentum in the OECD area as a whole."

IMF Update of the World Economic Outlook, July 2018

The IMF published, July 16, its World Economic Outlook Update. Its title " Less Even Expansion, Rising Trade Tensions " summarises well its content. 

In terms of growth projections for world GDP, as in April, this organization maintains that it shoud increase by 3.9% both this year and next. But its economists signal that "...As the global cyclical upswing approaches its two-year mark, the pace of expansion in some economies appears to have peaked and growth has become less synchronized across countries." They write also that "Risks Tittled to the Downside", notably because of increasing financial and trade tensions." 

 

American economy: robust growth in the coming months

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the United States points again to a solid pace of growth in the coming months. Also, this organisation forcasts that US real GDP will increase by 2.8% this year, a projection similar to the one from the IMF (2.9%).

World economy: slower growth in March, according to PMI

The expansion of the world economy continued last March, but at a slower pace than the previous months, according to the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) published by IHS Markit . New orders let believe that it will be the same scenario in the coming weeks.

Let see what we will be able to read from the coming OECD leading indicators and the IMF World Economic Outlook.

World economy: the OECD has recently updated its projections

The OECD published, March 13, its world economic outlook update. Its new upward GDP growth forecasts for the world match the IMF projections published last January. As shown below, the estimates are revised upward for many countries. But the OECD economists signal that "... tensions are appearing that could threaten strong and sustainable medium-term growth."

Quebec economy: the Desjardins Leading Index...

... lets believe that the expansion of Quebec economy will continue at a sustained pace in the coming months. The DLI increased by 0.7% in January, according to the analysis published March 13. Economists from that financial institution forecast that real GDP will grow by 2.2% this year.

World economy: manufacturing sector expansion remains strong...

...according to the most recent PMI data published March first by IHS Markit Economics, but the pace of growth moderated slightly in February.

Sunny outlook for the world economy, according to the IMF

The IMF published January 22 its update of the World Economic Outlook. World output growth for 2017 is revised slightly higher (3.7%), and it should get even better results in 2018 (3.9%) and 2019 (3.9%).

The IMF economists detailed analysis of the World Economic Outlook  is available at :

http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/01/11/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2018

The DLI keeps sending positive signals for the Quebec economy

The Desjardins Leading Index (DLI) increased (0.7%) again in November according to the analysis published January 17 by this financial institution. This means that Quebec economic expansion will continue in the coming months.