Slow growth in Québec in the coming months, according to the DLI

The evolution of the Desjardins Leading Index (DLI) in the first quarter of this year lets believe that economic growth is actually weak  in Québec, and the outlook for the coming months is also of a slow growth. The DLI stabilised in February and March, after having dimished in January.

Link to the Desjardins analysis:
https://www.desjardins.com/ressources/pdf/ipd0516e.pdf?resVer=1454595388000

Downturn in the canadian construction industry in 2016

Recent data on three indicators point to a downturn in the canadian construction industry activity this year:

- Capital expenditures,

- Housing starts,

- Building permits value.

Capital expenditures (intentions for 2016), published by Statistics Canada May 10

 Housing starts, published by CMHC May 9

Building permits value, published May 5 by Statistics Canada

 

World economy: stable, but slow, growth, according to OECD leading indicators

The most recent OECD monthly leading indicators point to "stable growth", but at a low level in the coming months, notably in its member countries taken as a whole. The outlook is stabilising or improving somewhat in the main emerging economies.

OECD May 11 press release available at:
http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/compositeleadingindicatorsclioecdmay2016.htm

World economy: slow pace of expansion in April, according to PMI

The world economy kept expanding in April, but at a very slow pace, according to the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI published May 6 on Markit Economics website.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/f8c5a6a511ad4db8b82320e434c9799a

The IMF revises downward its growth projections for 2016

The International Monetary Fund published, April 12, its most recent edition of the World Economic Outlook (WEO). Without surprise, its economists revised downward their estimate of world real GDP growth for this year. Most countries and group of countries see a lower growth projection compared to last January. There are few exceptions; among them, China and Emerging and Developing Europe.

The most recent edition of the WEO is available at:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/

Here is the summary table of the projections:

Slow growth of the world economy in the first quarter

The world economy grew in the first quarter of 2016, but at a very slow pace. This is what we can read from the Markit Economics press release of April 5 on the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI. The "new orders" subindex (see below) points to the same direction in the short term.

Link to Markit Economics April 5 press release:
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/dcaf0a9b1dc54693831a9e30c1562cfb

A graph published in the March 19 edition of The Economist shows that the world economy slow growth trend has been going on for quite a while.

It will be interesting to see what the IMF will project for 2016 as a whole when it publishes its April edition of the World Economic Outlook. A downgrade of its January forecast is quite possible.

Is the world economy stagnating in early 2016?

The world economy is stagnating or growing very weakly in early 2016. This is what it looks like based on the recent evolution of the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, published March 3 by Markit Economics.

Details at:
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/fae12ed799474198b4047027ab72793a