Japan's economy: in recession or not?

November 16, the Japan Cabinet Office (JCO) indicates, on a preliminary basis, that the country's real GDP diminished by 0.2%  during this year second and third quarters. Some economists and journalists conclude that the japanese economy is again in recession, because real GDP decreased for two consecutive quarters.

December 8, the JCO publishes its revised data on GDP. The slowdown in the second quarter is now estimated at 0.1%, and the decrease in the third is erased and replaced by an increase of 0.3%.

This makes obvious again the fragility and the weakness of seeing the occurrence of a recession by using uniquely the real GDP changes, especially when the variations are small and subject to revisions. 

OECD area: stable growth in the coming months

Leading economic indicators from the OECD point to stable growth in the coming months for the area as a whole. The increase in economic activity should be close to the trend. Canada, Japan and the euro zone are examples of economies where growth will be stable and close to trend according to data published December 8 by the OECD. But, there are signals of weakening growth for the United States and United Kingdom.

Details at:
http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/CLI-Dec15.pdf

The World Economy Improved in November, according to PMI Data

The world economy growth accelerated in November, according to the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, published December 3 by Markit Economics. The increase in new orders is a positive signal for the economic activity in the coming months.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/5f068a9fea394b848e7b519e1f536d6f

 

United States economy: rebound of the leading indicators in October

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the United States increased significantly in October, after three consecutive months of stagnation, according to the information published November 19. Moreover, nine out of ten indicators of the index contributed to the increase.

Details at:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

                          Conference Board LEI recent evolution

Modest growth in Quebec in the coming months

The Desjardins Leading Index (DLI) points to a modest growth of the economic activity in Quebec for the time being and in the coming months. The DLI stagnated in September and its July and August progression was revised downward, according to the information published November 16 on Desjardins Internet page.

https://www.desjardins.com/ressources/pdf/ipd1115e.pdf?resVer=1447698715000

World Economy: Modest Pace of Growth

The most recent JPMorgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, published November 4 on Markit Economics Internet site, lets believe that the world economy pace of growth is quite modest actually.

Link to Markit Economics:
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/a903e72174024a78bf731053d96077e3

Growth slowdown in the United States

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index and monthly leading indicators from the Conference Board and the OECD all show that the pace of growth in the United States is slowing down and that this trend will continue in the coming months.

CFNAI:
https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index

Conference Board:
https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/US%20LEI%20-%20Tech%20Notes%20Oct%2022%202015.pdf

OECD:
http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/CLI-Oct15.pdf