World Economy : Forecast Update

In early February, the Conference Board (CB) revised upward its projection for the world economy in 2014. It now predicts that real GDP will grow by 3.5% this year. Last November, its forecast was 3.1 %.

The new CB projection is slightly lower than those published by the IMF and the World Bank in January; both expect a growth of 3.7% this year.

Details at :     http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm

Euro zone : the outlook continues to improve

The index of leading indicators of the evolution of euro zone economy increased again in December according to the data and the analysis published January 28 by the Conference Board.

Details at : http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=10

February 5 update : The PMI from Markit Economics show that the eurozone economy kept improving in January. 

Details at : http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8234c73e83714049a57e79337b91f438

American Economy : Sustained Growth

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, based on 85 monthly indicators, shows that the US economy grew at a pace slightly higher than the trend during the last quarter of 2013.

http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/cfnai/2014/cfnai_january2014.pdf

The monthly and semi-annual evolution of the Conference Board leading economic index points towards a sustained growth in the coming months.

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

Many forecasters (IMF, World Bank, Conference Board, etc.) anticipate that the US GDP will grow by around 3% this year, compared to close to 2% in 2013.

Big Mac Index : the canadian dollar overvalued in January 2014

According to the Big Mac Index published by The Economist, the canadian dollar is overvalued, compared to the US dollar, by 8.4 % in January 2014.

Details at : http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index

IMF- World Economic Outlook Update

Here is a good summary of the IMF World Economic Outlook Update published January 21 :

Better growth prospects in the OECD area

The OECD leading indicators, published January 13, point to a more rapid pace of growth in many countries of the OECD area.

Details at : http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/compositeleadingindicatorsclioecdjanuary2014.htm

Canadian economy : modest growth in the coming months

The leading indicators of the canadian economy show that its growth will be modest in the months to come. This is what we can interpret from the publication on January 6 of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute press release on the recent evolution of its index of leading indicators.

Details at : http://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/biggest-us-advance-in-years-drives-mli-leading-economic-indicator-up-0-3-in-november/

The manufacturing sector should contribute moderatly to the growth of the whole economy based on the recent evolution of the RBC PMI published January 2 on the Internet site of Markit Economics.

Details at : http://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Page.mvc/PressReleases

The Bank of Canada Report on Monetary Policy, to be published January 22, will give us a more complete overview on the state of the canadian economy and the Bank's projections for the coming quarters. Watch for questions on the absence of inflationary pressures and the possibility of deflation.