The rythm of expansion of the world economy...

 ...remained solid in May, when the data on China are excluded, according to the PMI results published today.

Link to the June 6 S&P Global press release

US economy: "Forecasters predict slower growth" for 2022 and 2023

The most recent survey of 34 professional forecasters, realised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, shows that the United States outlook is significantly weaker than it was three months ago. 

The median projection for the United States real GDP growth is estimated at 2.5% for this year and 2.3% for 2023. Three months ago the projections were respectively 3.7% and 2.7%.

Link to the Second quarter 2022 Survey of Professional Forecasters  

In September, OECD leading economic indicators...

 ... "indicate that growth remains at above-trend levels but is moderating in the OECD area as a whole."

News release

Short term outlook for the United States economy, August 2021

Preliminary data from IHS Markit show that in August " Private sector expansion slows sharply amid capacity constraints and Delta variant spread".

The  Conference Board Leading Economic Index, published August 19, "...is consistent with strong economic growth in the second half of the year." The CB forecasts real GDP growth of 6% this year and 4% for 2022.

A panel of 36 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia "...expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 6.1 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022." ( median forecast) 

A flash at the world economy

 PMI surveys, compiled by IHS Markit, show that world economic activity accelerated last April "...to reach an 11 year high...". 

The OECD monthly composite leading indicators "... point to a steady expansion in the OECD area and in most major economies..." in the coming months.

Uncertainties related to the evolution of the pandemy still taint any scenario about the short term economic outlook.

Short Term Outlook for the US Economy

 

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Markit Economics PMI data show that the US economy is expanding for the time being. This expansion should continue in the coming months, according to the Conference Board Leading Economic Index. The median projection for real GDP growth in 2021 is at 4.5%, according to the Philadelphia Fed on the basis of calculations made by 39 professional forecasters. 

The world economy expansion continued...

 ... in December, according to the most recent PMI data published January 6 by IHS Markit.