World economy: slow pace of expansion in April, according to PMI

The world economy kept expanding in April, but at a very slow pace, according to the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI published May 6 on Markit Economics website.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/f8c5a6a511ad4db8b82320e434c9799a

The IMF revises downward its growth projections for 2016

The International Monetary Fund published, April 12, its most recent edition of the World Economic Outlook (WEO). Without surprise, its economists revised downward their estimate of world real GDP growth for this year. Most countries and group of countries see a lower growth projection compared to last January. There are few exceptions; among them, China and Emerging and Developing Europe.

The most recent edition of the WEO is available at:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/

Here is the summary table of the projections:

Slow growth of the world economy in the first quarter

The world economy grew in the first quarter of 2016, but at a very slow pace. This is what we can read from the Markit Economics press release of April 5 on the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI. The "new orders" subindex (see below) points to the same direction in the short term.

Link to Markit Economics April 5 press release:
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/dcaf0a9b1dc54693831a9e30c1562cfb

A graph published in the March 19 edition of The Economist shows that the world economy slow growth trend has been going on for quite a while.

It will be interesting to see what the IMF will project for 2016 as a whole when it publishes its April edition of the World Economic Outlook. A downgrade of its January forecast is quite possible.

Is the world economy stagnating in early 2016?

The world economy is stagnating or growing very weakly in early 2016. This is what it looks like based on the recent evolution of the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, published March 3 by Markit Economics.

Details at:
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey//PressRelease.mvc/fae12ed799474198b4047027ab72793a

Slow growth in Québec actually and in the coming months

The Institut de la statistique du Québec indicated January 21 that the Québec economy grew by only 1.1% in the first ten months of 2015 compared to the same period in 2014. It seems that growth is even less than that these days and it will stay slow in the coming months, based on the recent evolution of the Desjardins Leading Index published February 11.


Details at: https://www.desjardins.com/ressources/pdf/ipd0216e.pdf?resVer=1455201438000

Stay cautious

The Globe and Mail published February 6 (page F2) a summary of an interview between Stephen Roach, former chief economist at Morgan Stanley's, and Rudyard Griffiths. Here is the last part of the compte rendu

"What advice do you have?

These are difficult, treacherous times, and financial markets are displaying an extraordinary amount of volatility. I think a prudent strategy is to stay very cautious and not take an awful lot of risk in your individual portfolios until there’s a clearer sense of where the underlying economic fundamentals are heading, and what, if anything, central banks are going to do."

Slow growth of the world and american economies in January, according to PMI surveys

Purchasing Managers surveys published by Markit Economics show that the world and the United States economies grew in January, but at a weak pace. The surveys results are published at:

https://www.markiteconomics.com/public

Here are graphs that show some results of the surveys:

World economy

 

USA economy

Manufacturing activity in Canada