The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) presented this week their respective assessment of the world economic outlook. Both forecast a world GDP growth of over 4.0% this year : 4.4% according to the IMF and 4.1% according to the BoC. (These estimations are based on a ponderation of the importance of countries' GDP evaluated at the purchasing power parity of their currency. When evaluated at market exchange rates, world GDP growth in 2011 is estimated by the IMF at 3.5 %.) Without surprise, emerging economies will grow faster than the advanced ones this year.
The BoC, with 3.0%, is slightly more optimistic than the IMF, with 2.8%, as to the economic growth in the United States this year. Both, the IMF and the Bank, revised upward their estimation of GDP growth in Canada, with respective forecasts of 2.8% and 2.9% for 2011. But in its evaluation of the canadian economy, the BoC is not as optimistic as the OECD was last week. The OECD estimated that the canadian economy grew by 5.2% in the first quarter (annualised rate) and will grow by 3.8% in the present one. The respective numbers from the BoC are 4.2% and 2.0%.
As to the risks associated with world economic growth projections, the IMF and the BoC have similar ones : geopolitical developments, commodity prices that could increase further, especially oil, difficulties of refinancing the public debt in many european countries, etc.
Details at : http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/fr/
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/index.htm
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