It is too early to answer this question according to the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council. The two quarter drop in real GDP (2025 Q4 & 2026 Q1) was of "very low amplitude", and it is subject to revision. Also, less than half of the industrial sectors registered a decline of activity. Add to that the evolution of the job market, then the diagnostic of a recession is premature.
Report of June 5 by the Business Cycle Council
The world economy expanded again in February according to the J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI data published March 5.
In short :
" Global Composite PMI Output Index at 53.3 (21-month high)
New export orders rise for first time in almost a year
Business optimism at five-month high"
Let's see what March will look like with the consequences of the war in the Middle East.
Link to the S&P Global press release of March 5 for more details
Forecasters surveyed quarterly by The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, expect a slowdown in US real GDP growth: 1.4% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026 (median forecast). That compares respectively to 2.4% and 2.2% in the preceding quarterly survey. However, no decline is expected on a quarterly basis from 2025Q2 to 2026Q2.
... but at a slower pace than in the previous months, according to the most recent PMI results published March 5 by S&P Global. " Uncertainty hits demand and employment " " and the US is no longer outperforming the rest of the world. "
For details look at the March 5 press release on the J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia published February 14 the results of its most recent quarterly survey of 40 professional forecasters. On average, they estimate US real GDP growth at 2.4% in 2025 and 2.2% next year. That compares to 2.8% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2023, as calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The forecasters predict that US real GDP should grow at an annual average of 2.1% over the next 10 years.
... of 2.7% in 2024, according to PMI survey results produced by S&P Global and published December 5. That would be less than the IMF economists forecast of 3.2% published last October.
According to IMF economists, `` ... growth is poised to weaken over the next five years and remain well below what was typical in the two decades before the pandemic. `` for most of G20 economies. Different policies are suggested in that text to support these economies.
