Leading economic indicators for the United States point towards a sustained, though moderate, growth in the coming months. The Conference Board monthly index and the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) weekly index, both released today, suggest that economic activity will continue to expand.
According to the IMF, the Bank of Canada and The Economist poll of forecasters, the US economy should grow at close to 3.0% this year. But, this scenario as downside risks. If energy and food prices keep going up that could add again pessimism in consumer confidence and, consequently, affect their buying intentions. Auto and electronic manufacturing could be affected for longer than initially anticipated by the lack of components or parts coming from Japan. Moreover, residential construction will stay very low based on the housing starts data for the first three months of this year.
So, good prospects on the horizon, not without threatening clouds.
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