After having flirted last summer with the possibility of a new recession, the outlook since improved for the United States economy. The Conference Board (CB) leading economic index for that country increased by 1.1 % in November, a fifth increase in a row, according to data published today. Moreover, nine of the ten components of that index were on the upside last month. But, from May to November, the index increased by only 2.2 %, compared to 4,0 % in the six preceding months. That signals a moderate growth insufficient, probably, to improve the outlook for the labor market.
The US economic expansion will keep on going without the contribution of the residential construction industry. Building permits were the only component of the CB index to show a decline in November. Yesterday, the Census Bureau announced that housing starts were at an annualized level of 555,000 in November. It is better than October, but still at historical low levels.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) weekly leading index points also towards the continuity of the expansion. On December 10, the index was at its highest (127.4) since May 7 (131.9). The most recent trough was reached last summer (120.4). The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which will be published Monday, should confirm the improvements seen from the CB and ECRI indices.
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