After improvement in July and August, the Conference Board index of leading indicators for Spain is again going down in September and October, according to data published December 14. The evolution of the index for that country suggests a weak economic growth in the coming months, if there is growth.
The equivalent index from the OECD, made available on December 13, lets believe to a growth over the long term trend for Spain's economy. But that index, in the actual economic cycle, could overestimate the production to come in Spain; it stays actually below the long term trend.
To give an order of magnitude about the economic outlook for Spain, the forecasts of GDP growth by organizations polled by The Economist (December 11 edition) are between a low of -0.5 % and a high of 1.0 % for 2011.
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