Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Japan's economy: in recession or not?

November 16, the Japan Cabinet Office (JCO) indicates, on a preliminary basis, that the country's real GDP diminished by 0.2%  during this year second and third quarters. Some economists and journalists conclude that the japanese economy is again in recession, because real GDP decreased for two consecutive quarters.

December 8, the JCO publishes its revised data on GDP. The slowdown in the second quarter is now estimated at 0.1%, and the decrease in the third is erased and replaced by an increase of 0.3%.

This makes obvious again the fragility and the weakness of seeing the occurrence of a recession by using uniquely the real GDP changes, especially when the variations are small and subject to revisions. 

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