Diverging signals come from leading indicator indexes related to short term economic prospects for Japan's economy. The Conference Board index, published January 11, points towards a sharp slowdown of the pace of growth. It decreased in November (-0.6 %) compared to October, and from May to November (-4.1 %) compared to the six preceding months. Four of the seven components of the index went down in November.
The equivalent index from the japanese government, published on January 11 and revised on January 20, increased significantly, going from 97.7 in October to 100.6 in November, after a few months of decline. Almost all the components of the index went up in November. But a one month increase, even if important, is not sufficient to make or change a pronostic.
The OECD composite leading index for Japan, released on January 10, points towards an acceleration of the economic expansion since the last few months.
Japan seems to be the only country where leading indices by different organizations offer such different outlooks. Differences in GDP growth forecasts are also significant. For 2011, forecasts go from 0.1 % to 2.0 % growth, according to The Economist (January 8 edition) poll of forecasters.
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