World Economy: Outlook Revised Downward for 2019

IMF economists revised downward their projections for world economic growth in 2019. World GDP is now expected to increase by 3.3% this year. The downturn is not expected to last long since a modest acceleration is expected during the second half of the year.

The world economy at a glance

PMI results from IHS Markit keep sending signals of a slowdown in world economic activity.

OECD leading economic indicators, published February 11, show that this trend will continue in the coming months.

"A Weakening Global Expansion", according to the IMF

The International Monetary Fund published, January 21, its World Economic Outlook Update. Six months ago, its economists projected that the world economy would grow by 3.9% in 2019. Last October, it was revised to 3.7%, and, now, it stands at 3.5%. The IMF worries are mainly related to an eventual escalation of trade tensions, the level of public and private debt, Brexit without an aggreement with the European Unoin and an economic slowdown in China that would be more severe than what is actually anticipated.

Leading Economic Indicators from the OECD...

... point again to a slowdown of the world economy during the first semester of this year. The most recent monthly data on those indicators were published January 14 on the OECD web page.

The expansion of the world economy continues at a moderate pace

The J.P.Morgan Global Composite PMI, published December 6 by IHS Markit, indicates that the world economy keeps expanding at a moderate pace for the time being.

In its most recent Economic Outlook, the OECD forecasts that world real GDP will grow by 3.5% in 2019, slightly less than this year (3.7%).

United States: robust and stable growth in the coming months

Leading economic indicators from the Conference Board and the OECD point to stable and robust growth in the United States economic activity in the coming months.

Conference Board

OECD

Moreover, the most recent OECD Economic Outlook, published November 21, forecast that real GDP growth will be 2.7% in the US in 2019, compared to 2.9% this year.

Quebec economy: outlook for 2019

In their most recent Economic and Financial Outlook, published November 20, Desjardins' economists forecast that Quebec economy will grow by 2.0% in 2019. That will be less than this year,  their estimation for real GDP growth being at 2.6%. The evolution of the Desjardins Leading Index (DLI) confirms that the pace of growth will be less intense in the coming months.