United States economy: what will be its pace of growth in 2017?

Many organizations revised recently their growth forecast for the United States economy in 2017. All of them predict a net improvement compared to 2016 (1.6%).

The IMF (April 18) projects a real GDP growth of 2.3% this year. Last March, the OECD had an estimate of 2.4%. The Conference Board is less optimistic with 2.1%. The 42 professional forecasters consulted by the Federal Reserve of  Philadelphia arrive at a probability of 2.3%. Forecasters consulted monthly by The Economist ( April 8 edition) have projections in a range that goes from 2.0% to 2.6%, the average being 2.3%.

The Federal Reserve Board members and the Federal Reserve Bank presidents arrive at a median rate of  2.1%; their projections are in a range going from 1.7% to 2.3% ( their projections are from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth of 2017).

The Conference Board index of leading indicators for the US economy points to at least a moderate growth in the coming months, as well as the equivalent OECD index.

For the time being, PMI surveys from IHS Markit let believe that the first quarter economic growth is below what is necessary to reach an annual growth of 2%. Based on economic data available, the Conference Board and the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast reach the same conclusion.

Then to get an annual GDP expansion of 2.3% or 2.4%, the three other quarters would have to show vigorous growth.   Just remember that since 2010, US GDP growth went from a low of 1.6% (in 2011 and 2016) and a high of 2.6% (2015).

Hence, it will take  "tout un tour de force" to reach the Trump Administration expected growth (over 3% and even 4%) this year and the followings.

Quebec's economy pace of growth...

...should be quite solid in the coming months. This is what we can deduct from the evolution of Desjardins Leading Index. The DLI has increased for nine  consecutive months according to the information made available March 13 on Desjardins web site.

The world economy continued to expand in February...

...but at a slightly slower pace than in January, according to PMI data published March 3 by IHS Markit.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6a45959d0434499fac8322b4b12099b3

OECD leading economic indicators...

"...continue to point to growth gaining momentum in several advanced economies.", according to the press release published February 8 on that organization web site.

http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/OECD-CLI-02-17.pdf

Quebec economy: the Desjardins Leading Index...

...continues its progression, and that lets believe that the economic activity expansion will keep on going at a moderate growth in the coming months. The most recent data on this index were published February 9 on Desjardins' web site.

https://www.desjardins.com/ressources/pdf/ipd0217e.pdf

Economists from that financial institution projected, last January, that Quebec real GDP would grow by 1.7% in 2017.

The world economy pace of expansion...

...seems to accelerate these days according to PMI surveys by IHS Markit. The most recent data are based on surveys conducted last January, and for which the results were published February 3.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6ad1129d978643939914b4311ded2e37

The IMF updates its World Economic Outlook

The IMF published, January 16, the update of its World Economic Outlook. Its projections did not change for the world GDP compared to last fall estimates. But, there are slight revisions for many countries. The IMF signals this in its introduction: "...there is a wide dispersion of possible outcomes around the projections, given uncertainty surrounding the policy stance of the incoming U.S. administration and its global ramifications."

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/update/01/