World economy: stable and moderate growth in the OECD area

The OECD monthly leading indicators of the evolution of the economy show a pattern of  stable and moderate growth in the coming months. The main exceptions are the euro area and Japan where the short term outlook is to growth weakening. The most recent data on leading indicators were published October 8 at : 

http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/CLI-Oct14.pdf

On October 7, the IMF published its World Economic Outlook and its forecats are not different from what we can read from the OECD leading indicators. The world output will grow by only 3.3% this year, below trend, and 3.8% next year, according to the IMF.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/

World Economy: moderate growth

The expansion of the world economy continues at a moderate pace. This is what we can deduct from the latest monthly edition of the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing & services PMI, published October 3 by Markit Economics. Manufacturing and services industries contribute to growth, according to the purchasing managers consulted around the world.

Link to Markit Economics press release :

http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f9fa304d4f7948649dec41faf0ffe0e5

The IMF will soon publish its World Economic Outlook update. It will give us its most recent assessment of the economic situation and its forecasts for 2015.

World Economy: Signs of Solid Growth?

Monthly Leading Indicators, published July 8 by the OECD, «...continue to point to stable growth momentum in the OECD area». Growth should be above trend in advanced economies in the coming months. Better prospects are anticipated for China and India based also on the OECD composite leading indicators for those countries.

Details
http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/CLI-July14.pdf

The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, published July 3 by Markit Economics, also shows positive signs for the world economy. Signs of improvements are also present for emerging economies in the PMI.

Details
July 3
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f4caa5bd611d4a568ab1a28c8f2816a5
July 7
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/334c78cd9bb8449484028c652203c1c8


In the coming days, the IMF and the Bank of Canada will publish an update of their forecasts for the world economy. Let's see what will be their assessment of the economic outlook for the coming quarters.

Weak growth in Quebec in the coming months

Desjardins Leading Index (DLI) for Quebec's economy points to weak growth in the coming months. The DLI increased only by 0.2% in both April and March and by 0.3% in February, according to the data and the analysis published June 12.

Quebec Government Budget tabled June 4 is based on real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2014. It might be quite difficult to achieve. In the first two months of this year, Quebec GDP was 1.4 % higher than during the corresponding period of 2013, according to the Institut de la statistique du Québec.

For details about the DLI go to :

http://www.desjardins.com/ressources/pdf/ipd0614e.pdf?resVer=1402579016000

OECD leading indicators, May 2014

The OECD published May 13 its monthly data on composite leading indicators. They show that OECD countries will have, in the coming months, a stable and moderate growth. But major emerging economies, notably China, India and Brazil, will register a significant slowdown.

Details at : http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/CLI-May14.pdf

China : growth will continue, but at a slower pace in the coming months

The Conference Board leading economic index for China shows that its production of goods and services will keep expanding in the coming months, but at a slightly slower pace.

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

The latest Flash PMI data from Markit indicate that the manufacturing sector keeps registering a slowdown of its growth.

http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b6e487b86c1a4ec48044fb9e79b0e282

United States : moderate growth in the coming months

The Conference Board leading economic index recent evolution points towards a moderate growth for the american economy in the coming months. The most recent data are the February ones, and they were published March 20.

Details :   http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1