World Economy: Signs of Solid Growth?

Monthly Leading Indicators, published July 8 by the OECD, «...continue to point to stable growth momentum in the OECD area». Growth should be above trend in advanced economies in the coming months. Better prospects are anticipated for China and India based also on the OECD composite leading indicators for those countries.

Details
http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/CLI-July14.pdf

The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, published July 3 by Markit Economics, also shows positive signs for the world economy. Signs of improvements are also present for emerging economies in the PMI.

Details
July 3
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f4caa5bd611d4a568ab1a28c8f2816a5
July 7
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/334c78cd9bb8449484028c652203c1c8


In the coming days, the IMF and the Bank of Canada will publish an update of their forecasts for the world economy. Let's see what will be their assessment of the economic outlook for the coming quarters.

Weak growth in Quebec in the coming months

Desjardins Leading Index (DLI) for Quebec's economy points to weak growth in the coming months. The DLI increased only by 0.2% in both April and March and by 0.3% in February, according to the data and the analysis published June 12.

Quebec Government Budget tabled June 4 is based on real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2014. It might be quite difficult to achieve. In the first two months of this year, Quebec GDP was 1.4 % higher than during the corresponding period of 2013, according to the Institut de la statistique du Québec.

For details about the DLI go to :

http://www.desjardins.com/ressources/pdf/ipd0614e.pdf?resVer=1402579016000

OECD leading indicators, May 2014

The OECD published May 13 its monthly data on composite leading indicators. They show that OECD countries will have, in the coming months, a stable and moderate growth. But major emerging economies, notably China, India and Brazil, will register a significant slowdown.

Details at : http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/CLI-May14.pdf

China : growth will continue, but at a slower pace in the coming months

The Conference Board leading economic index for China shows that its production of goods and services will keep expanding in the coming months, but at a slightly slower pace.

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

The latest Flash PMI data from Markit indicate that the manufacturing sector keeps registering a slowdown of its growth.

http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b6e487b86c1a4ec48044fb9e79b0e282

United States : moderate growth in the coming months

The Conference Board leading economic index recent evolution points towards a moderate growth for the american economy in the coming months. The most recent data are the February ones, and they were published March 20.

Details :   http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

World Economy : Forecast Update

In early February, the Conference Board (CB) revised upward its projection for the world economy in 2014. It now predicts that real GDP will grow by 3.5% this year. Last November, its forecast was 3.1 %.

The new CB projection is slightly lower than those published by the IMF and the World Bank in January; both expect a growth of 3.7% this year.

Details at :     http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm

Euro zone : the outlook continues to improve

The index of leading indicators of the evolution of euro zone economy increased again in December according to the data and the analysis published January 28 by the Conference Board.

Details at : http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=10

February 5 update : The PMI from Markit Economics show that the eurozone economy kept improving in January. 

Details at : http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8234c73e83714049a57e79337b91f438