World economy: PMI suggests that the contraction is easing

PMI results suggest that the contraction in economic activity eased significantly in June. The most recent analysis on this subject was published July 6 by IHS Markit.

Modest growth of the world economy, according to the IMF

The IMF published, January 20, its World Economic Outlook Update. Production growth could be higher in 2020 and 2021 than in 2019; however, it would still be under the historical trend.


The downward risks associated to these projections remain important, according to IMF economists. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, trade disputes between the United States and its partners, social troubles in countries like India and extreme climatic conditions could influence negatively economic conditions. Add to those the consequences of the eventual contagion of the coronavirus. 

World economy: stable growth, but below trend in the coming months

Leading economic indicators compiled by the OECD "...continue to point to stable growth momentum in the OECD area as a whole but with growth remaining below trend in all major OECD countries and most large emerging economies."

Link to the December 9 press release from the OECD

World economy: the trend to a slow pace of growth continues

The world economy continues to grow, but at a slow pace, according to the most recent results from IHS Markit PMI surveys from around the world.

Leading economic indicators from the OECD show that it will continue to be so in the coming months.

Joseph Stiglitz' book titled «People, Power, and Profits»

My comment on Joseph Stiglitz most recent book is available at:

 https://jailuetvous.blogspot.com/2019/08/people-power-and-profits-progressive.html

United States: slow to moderate growth in the coming months...

... according to the latest monthly edition of the Conference Board leading economic indicators.

Economic Expansion Duration in the United States and Canada: an Overview

In the United States, the actual economic cycle expansion phase equalized, last June, the duration of the longest known expansion, the one that began in April 1991 and ended in March 2001, according to the information available at the National Bureau of Economic Research. The actual expansion that started in July 2009 has already lasted 120 months. July and the coming months will establish a new mark, no recession signal being perceptible when one looks at the trend shown by leading economic indicators for the United States.

In Canada, the actual economic cycle expansion phase started in June 2009. It is so far 121 months old, and it will continue to add months based on forecasts published July 10 by the Bank of Canada. But, it is far from being the longest expansion in the country. The one that went from May 1992 to October 2008 lasted 198 months, and the one from April 1961 to October 1974, 163 months, according to the information available at the C.D.Howe Institute Business Cycle Council.