World economy: signs of slower growth in the coming months

The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI shows, that last July, the world output pace of growth was at a low in four months. The new orders subindex lets believe that this trend will continue in the short term.

As to leading indicators from the OECD, published August 8, they  "...are pointing tentatively to easing growth momentum in the OECD area as a whole."

IMF Update of the World Economic Outlook, July 2018

The IMF published, July 16, its World Economic Outlook Update. Its title " Less Even Expansion, Rising Trade Tensions " summarises well its content. 

In terms of growth projections for world GDP, as in April, this organization maintains that it shoud increase by 3.9% both this year and next. But its economists signal that "...As the global cyclical upswing approaches its two-year mark, the pace of expansion in some economies appears to have peaked and growth has become less synchronized across countries." They write also that "Risks Tittled to the Downside", notably because of increasing financial and trade tensions." 

 

American economy: robust growth in the coming months

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the United States points again to a solid pace of growth in the coming months. Also, this organisation forcasts that US real GDP will increase by 2.8% this year, a projection similar to the one from the IMF (2.9%).

World economy: slower growth in March, according to PMI

The expansion of the world economy continued last March, but at a slower pace than the previous months, according to the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) published by IHS Markit . New orders let believe that it will be the same scenario in the coming weeks.

Let see what we will be able to read from the coming OECD leading indicators and the IMF World Economic Outlook.

World economy: the OECD has recently updated its projections

The OECD published, March 13, its world economic outlook update. Its new upward GDP growth forecasts for the world match the IMF projections published last January. As shown below, the estimates are revised upward for many countries. But the OECD economists signal that "... tensions are appearing that could threaten strong and sustainable medium-term growth."

Quebec economy: the Desjardins Leading Index...

... lets believe that the expansion of Quebec economy will continue at a sustained pace in the coming months. The DLI increased by 0.7% in January, according to the analysis published March 13. Economists from that financial institution forecast that real GDP will grow by 2.2% this year.

World economy: manufacturing sector expansion remains strong...

...according to the most recent PMI data published March first by IHS Markit Economics, but the pace of growth moderated slightly in February.