Overview of the world economy in 2017

The most recent monthly PMI surveys from IHS Markit indicate that the world economy is growing at a moderate pace for the time being.

The OECD monthly leading indicators, published June 12, let believe that the pace of growth will continue that way in the coming months.

http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/composite-leading-indicators-cli-oecd-june-2017.htm

In its most recent appraisal of the world economy, OECD economists predict that real world GDP will grow by 3.5% this year, which would be better than in 2016 (3.0%) and 2015 (3.1%).

http://www.oecd.org/economy/better-but-not-good-enough-new-approaches-are-needed-to-make-globalisation-work-for-all.htm

The next update on the world economic outlook will come from the IMF in July.

Quebec economy : sustained growth in the coming months, according to the DLI

The Desjardins Leading Index (DLI) lets believe that the Quebec economy will keep expanding at a moderate pace in the coming months. The most recent monthly analysis of the DLI was published May 15. In their May 18 Economic and Financial Outlook, Desjardins economists predict that Quebec real GDP will increase by 2% in 2017.

Moderate growth of the world economy in 2017

PMI surveys from IHS Markit indicate that the world economy expanded at a moderate pace in the first four months of this year.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/8f2bc4e8a08648c98b02173d4e39e361

Composite leading indicators from the OECD let believe that this trend will continue in the coming quarters.

http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/OECD-CLI-05-17.pdf

So, the IMF forecast of a 3.5% growth for world output in 2017 is still in the cards. Such a growth would be better than in 2016 (3.1%), and would be similar to what was achieved from 2012 to 2015.

http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/04/04/world-economic-outlook-april-2017

United States economy: what will be its pace of growth in 2017?

Many organizations revised recently their growth forecast for the United States economy in 2017. All of them predict a net improvement compared to 2016 (1.6%).

The IMF (April 18) projects a real GDP growth of 2.3% this year. Last March, the OECD had an estimate of 2.4%. The Conference Board is less optimistic with 2.1%. The 42 professional forecasters consulted by the Federal Reserve of  Philadelphia arrive at a probability of 2.3%. Forecasters consulted monthly by The Economist ( April 8 edition) have projections in a range that goes from 2.0% to 2.6%, the average being 2.3%.

The Federal Reserve Board members and the Federal Reserve Bank presidents arrive at a median rate of  2.1%; their projections are in a range going from 1.7% to 2.3% ( their projections are from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth of 2017).

The Conference Board index of leading indicators for the US economy points to at least a moderate growth in the coming months, as well as the equivalent OECD index.

For the time being, PMI surveys from IHS Markit let believe that the first quarter economic growth is below what is necessary to reach an annual growth of 2%. Based on economic data available, the Conference Board and the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast reach the same conclusion.

Then to get an annual GDP expansion of 2.3% or 2.4%, the three other quarters would have to show vigorous growth.   Just remember that since 2010, US GDP growth went from a low of 1.6% (in 2011 and 2016) and a high of 2.6% (2015).

Hence, it will take  "tout un tour de force" to reach the Trump Administration expected growth (over 3% and even 4%) this year and the followings.

Quebec's economy pace of growth...

...should be quite solid in the coming months. This is what we can deduct from the evolution of Desjardins Leading Index. The DLI has increased for nine  consecutive months according to the information made available March 13 on Desjardins web site.

The world economy continued to expand in February...

...but at a slightly slower pace than in January, according to PMI data published March 3 by IHS Markit.

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/6a45959d0434499fac8322b4b12099b3

OECD leading economic indicators...

"...continue to point to growth gaining momentum in several advanced economies.", according to the press release published February 8 on that organization web site.

http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/OECD-CLI-02-17.pdf