United States Economy: GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026

Forecasters surveyed quarterly by The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, expect a slowdown in US real GDP growth: 1.4% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026 (median forecast). That compares respectively to 2.4% and 2.2% in the preceding quarterly survey.  However, no decline is expected on a quarterly basis from 2025Q2 to 2026Q2.

Link to the May 16 press release

The world economy kept expanding in february...

... but at a slower pace than in the previous months, according to the most recent PMI results published  March 5 by S&P Global.  " Uncertainty hits demand and employment " " and the US is no longer outperforming the rest of the world. "

For details look at the March 5 press release on the J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI 

United States: moderate real GDP growth expected by professional forecasters

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia published February 14 the results of its most recent quarterly survey of 40 professional forecasters. On average, they estimate US real GDP growth at 2.4% in 2025 and 2.2% next year. That compares to 2.8% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2023, as calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The forecasters predict that  US real GDP should grow at an annual average of 2.1% over the next 10 years.

The world economy is expected to grow at a pace...

... of 2.7% in 2024, according to PMI survey results produced by S&P Global and published  December 5. That would be less than the IMF economists forecast of 3.2% published last October.

G20 economies: weaker growth in the coming years

 According to IMF economists, `` ... growth is poised to weaken over the next five years and remain well below what was typical in the two decades before the pandemic. `` for most of G20 economies. Different policies are suggested in that text to support these economies.

The world economy was expanding at a faster pace in August

 According to the J.P.Morgan Global Composite PMI, the wold economy expanded faster in August than in July. The service sector was the growth engine, while manufacturing contracted again. « India saw the strongest growth overall, followed by the US. Rates of expansion were relatively mild in China and the euro area as a whole. » 

US economy: upward revision

 The 34 forecasters, consulted quarterly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, predict that the US real GDP will grow 2.4% in 2024 (median forecast). Their previous estimate was at 1.7 %.

Link to the press release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia