... but at a slower pace than in the previous months, according to the most recent PMI results published March 5 by S&P Global. " Uncertainty hits demand and employment " " and the US is no longer outperforming the rest of the world. "
For details look at the March 5 press release on the J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia published February 14 the results of its most recent quarterly survey of 40 professional forecasters. On average, they estimate US real GDP growth at 2.4% in 2025 and 2.2% next year. That compares to 2.8% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2023, as calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The forecasters predict that US real GDP should grow at an annual average of 2.1% over the next 10 years.
... of 2.7% in 2024, according to PMI survey results produced by S&P Global and published December 5. That would be less than the IMF economists forecast of 3.2% published last October.
According to IMF economists, `` ... growth is poised to weaken over the next five years and remain well below what was typical in the two decades before the pandemic. `` for most of G20 economies. Different policies are suggested in that text to support these economies.
According to the J.P.Morgan Global Composite PMI, the wold economy expanded faster in August than in July. The service sector was the growth engine, while manufacturing contracted again. « India saw the strongest growth overall, followed by the US. Rates of expansion were relatively mild in China and the euro area as a whole. »
The 34 forecasters, consulted quarterly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, predict that the US real GDP will grow 2.4% in 2024 (median forecast). Their previous estimate was at 1.7 %.
Link to the press release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Flash PMI data from S&P Global show that economic activity continues to expand, in June, in the United States, thanks to the service sector, maunufacturing still showing signs of weakness. Business orders are still on the upside, meaning that July could still be expansionary.
But, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index "declined in each of the last fourteen months and continues to point to weaker economic activity". Conference Board economists forecast a contraction of the activity in the second half of this year and the first quarter of 2024.
